Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+49%$100 paper stake

Polymarket67¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES67¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 23

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Multiple September reports put WTI below $90, so a qualifying low during the month is favored.

WTI’s latest rally and disrupted Gulf flows lean against a fresh drop. Still, multiple September reports already placed WTI below $90, and the rules require only a brief qualifying print. Because those reports do not provide the specified Pyth candle, confirmation remains uncertain; easing Gulf tensions or ordinary volatility could produce another test before month-end.

Points to YES

WTI was reported below the threshold during September, suggesting a qualifying candle may already exist even though the specified Pyth data remain unverified.
On September 7, FXStreet reported NYMEX WTI futures trading near $89.50 during the European session.
The resolution rule allows a momentary intraday dip to qualify, making sustained trade below $90 unnecessary.
As of September 9, the rules require only one active-month one-minute candle with a final low at or below $90 during an applicable September session.

Points to NO

WTI has rebounded materially above $90, increasing the decline needed for another qualifying low.
On September 9, U.S. WTI was up 1.2% at $94.13 a barrel.
Disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic is supporting a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
On September 9, Kpler reported that Strait of Hormuz transits appeared to have fallen sharply in the preceding days.
Tight fuel supplies add support to crude demand and make a deep near-term retreat harder.
On September 4, the EIA reported that global gasoline supplies were tight because of refining disruptions in Russia, China, and the Middle East.

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