Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi55¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES55¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin starts just above the threshold with higher-time-frame support intact, so a September 11 price at or above $78,500 is favored.

Bitcoin begins the final stretch only slightly above $78,500, but its daily trend remains intact and recent fund inflows provide demand support. Short-term momentum is bearish, and recent macroeconomic pressure has already pushed the price close to the threshold. The August inflation report arrives on the settlement date and could trigger a sharp move in either direction. On balance, continued support and renewed buying make a finish at or above $78,500 favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has remained above the settlement threshold despite a substantial intraday decline.
On September 7, Bitcoin's reported intraday low was $79,013, still above the $78,500 threshold.
The higher-time-frame trend still supports prices above the threshold.
On September 7, Bitcoin remained above its key daily moving averages, with no confirmed breakdown in the higher-time-frame uptrend.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows indicate continuing institutional demand.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $770 million of net inflows from September 1 through September 4.

Points to NO

Short-term price momentum has turned bearish near a very close threshold.
Bitcoin's 15-minute moving averages were aligned in bearish order on September 7.
The settlement date carries a major inflation catalyst capable of overwhelming nearby technical support.
The August CPI report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on September 11, the date referenced by the question.

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