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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake
Polymarket79¢ 100¢
Our position · YES79¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 29 forecast

Multiple September timing reports and advanced private demonstrations point to launch readiness, so a public Astra release by the deadline is likely.

Recent timing claims, private customer demonstrations, and OpenAI’s stated focus on shipping models suggest Astra is approaching release. The most likely outcome is public access before September ends, potentially under another name that OpenAI confirms is Astra. Meaningful uncertainty remains because important workloads are still paused, safeguards are being tightened, and no official release date or public-access details have appeared.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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