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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket78¢
Our position · YES78¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 3
Sep 2 forecast

OpenAI says Astra is coming soon and has cleared its release safety assessment, so a qualifying public launch by September 3 is highly likely.

Astra was still not broadly available on September 2, and OpenAI had offered no precise timetable while describing initial access as limited. That visible evidence weighs against such a tight deadline. However, OpenAI also said broad release was coming soon, judged safeguards sufficient for release, and was reportedly on the cusp of launch. Because the announcement and public opening can occur together with little advance notice, a qualifying release remains highly likely despite substantial last-day reversal risk.

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