Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 31?
Signal ended
Entry · NO62¢
PublishedAug 31
Aug 31 forecast
Bitcoin sits just below $78,500 with hours remaining, so an August 31 settlement at or above the threshold is a meaningful underdog.
Bitcoin is only 0.36% below the strike, so a qualifying rebound remains plausible. Yet the settlement-basis price is $78,215.17 with 6.4 hours left, and most contemporaneous exchange readings were below $78,500 after a macro-driven pullback and ETF outflows. Above-threshold prints and an August 31 high of $79,316.05 keep the outcome live, but an August 31 settlement at or above $78,500 is a meaningful underdog.
Points to NO
- Most contemporaneous exchange prices were below $78,500, placing Bitcoin on the wrong side of the threshold.At 10:40–10:42 UTC on August 31, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini, Binance and several other exchanges last traded below $78,500.
- Fresh ETF outflows and a sharp pullback indicate weaker near-term demand.On August 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202 million in outflows as Bitcoin fell to $77,588 after the Federal Reserve chair's Jackson Hole speech.
Points to YES
- Bitcoin has traded above the threshold today, showing that another qualifying move remains within its recent range.At 10:19:46 UTC on August 31, Kraken reported Bitcoin at $78,665.
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