Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Sep 1?
Recent trading repeatedly cleared $78,250 despite the current slight shortfall, so a September 1 settlement at or above the threshold is genuinely close.
Bitcoin is currently $78,076.24, only 0.22% below the threshold with hours remaining. Several September 1 readings were above $78,250, demonstrating that a modest rebound could produce a YES outcome. However, the day's broad trading range and weakening spot demand also leave substantial downside risk. The outcome is genuinely close, with a narrow finish above the threshold slightly more plausible than a finish below it.
- Bitcoin has already traded comfortably above the threshold on September 1.On September 1, Bitcoin traded at $79,024, up 0.1% over 24 hours.
- A recent Coinbase Pro reading also placed Bitcoin above the threshold.Bitcoin traded at $78,585.01 on Coinbase Pro at 7:45 a.m. UTC on September 1.
- Bitcoin currently sits slightly below the settlement threshold with limited time remaining.On September 1, Bitcoin was $78,076.24 on the settlement basis, 0.22% below $78,250 with 8.9 hours remaining.
- Wide intraday swings create substantial risk of another move below the threshold.Bitcoin traded between roughly $77,200 and $79,200 during the 24 hours leading into September 1.
- Weakening spot demand reduces support for a late rebound.On August 31, spot cumulative volume delta turned negative while seven-day spot trading volume fell 29.3% to $6.2 billion.
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