Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi71¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO29¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updated

Aug 27 forecast

The latest official settlement was below the cutoff and same-day readings mostly remained there, so an above-threshold WTI settlement is a meaningful underdog.

October WTI entered August 27 below the cutoff after consecutive declining settlements. Same-day readings were mostly below it despite a brief move above, leaving a viable but less likely upside path. Disrupted Gulf flows and Russian infrastructure attacks could still produce a sharp rally, while diplomatic progress, rising supply, and bearish momentum favor a below-cutoff settlement. No supplied source yet reports the official August 27 settlement.

Points to NO

The latest official settlement left October WTI below the cutoff, requiring a same-day gain and making an above-threshold finish less likely.
On August 26, October WTI settled at $82.23 per barrel, down $0.13 on the day.
A delayed August 27 reading remained below the cutoff, indicating that the needed rally had not been sustained by late morning.
On August 27 at 10:52 BST, WTI was shown at $82.09 per barrel, with the data identified as delayed and potentially rounded.
Recent selling pressure and broken technical support increase the chance that rallies fade before settlement.
An August 27 technical report said WTI had fallen below a bullish trend line and its 100- and 200-period moving averages, with nearby resistance at $83.20.

Points to YES

The contract-area price already traded above the cutoff intraday, showing that only a modest rebound is needed for a qualifying settlement.
On August 27, Investing.com displayed an intraday WTI high of $82.54, although it did not report an official settlement.
Continuing threats to Russian exports and uncertainty over Hormuz reopening preserve the possibility of a sudden supply-driven rally.
On August 27, Russian energy infrastructure faced continued Ukrainian strikes, while Iran said its arrangement with Oman did not guarantee an immediate Hormuz reopening.

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