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Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+104%$100 paper stake
Polymarket49¢ 100¢
Our position · YES49¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast

Expanded Astra testing signals late-stage progress, so a public GPT-6 release by September 30 is favored but far from guaranteed.

Official evidence currently leans against a September release: security work has delayed Astra, OpenAI has announced neither a release date nor GPT-6 branding, and GPT-5.6 Sol remains its public flagship. The outcome is nevertheless favored because reported expanded testing and an early-September target leave a credible short-notice launch path within the remaining month. The central uncertainty is whether security clearance and public rollout can follow quickly enough.

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