Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold−3%$100 paper stake
Polymarket56¢ → 57¢
Our position · NO44¢ → 43¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 12 forecast
Israel is unlikely to strike Greater Beirut by August 31, because confirmed talks in Rome and a US delegation on the ground raise immediate diplomatic barriers.
US presence and Rome talks heavily constrained near-term Israeli capital strikes
Points to NO
- US delegation arrived Beirut, July 11US CENTCOM delegation arrived Beirut for withdrawal coordination, July 11
- Lebanon confirmed Rome talks participation, July 11Lebanese official confirmed participation July 15 Rome talks, July 11
- Israel continued southern airstrikes, July 11Israel executed multiple airstrikes across southern Lebanon districts, July 11
Points to YES
- Hezbollah rejected framework provisions, July 9Hezbollah formally rejected June 26 framework agreement provisions, July 9
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