Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+127%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO44¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Israel is unlikely to strike Greater Beirut by August 31, because confirmed talks in Rome and a US delegation on the ground raise immediate diplomatic barriers.

US presence and Rome talks heavily constrained near-term Israeli capital strikes

Points to NO

US delegation arrived Beirut, July 11
US CENTCOM delegation arrived Beirut for withdrawal coordination, July 11
Lebanon confirmed Rome talks participation, July 11
Lebanese official confirmed participation July 15 Rome talks, July 11
Israel continued southern airstrikes, July 11
Israel executed multiple airstrikes across southern Lebanon districts, July 11

Points to YES

Hezbollah rejected framework provisions, July 9
Hezbollah formally rejected June 26 framework agreement provisions, July 9

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