Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Bitcoin is already slightly above the strike with less than a day remaining, so settling at or above $80,500 is favored.

The latest settlement-basis price of $80,752 is just above the $80,500 threshold after Bitcoin recovered from roughly $77,800 on September 3. That rebound and supportive weekly ETF inflows put an above-threshold finish ahead, but the cushion is thin, recent trading has been volatile, and the jobs report could quickly reverse the move. A finish at or above $80,500 is favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin enters the final window above the $80,500 threshold, giving an above-threshold settlement a narrow lead.
On September 4, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was $80,752 with less than a day remaining.
The latest rebound has already carried Bitcoin through the threshold after several days below it.
At 4:30 a.m. on September 4, Bitcoin traded at $81,437 after regaining $80,000 for the first time in three days.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF demand provides some support for the rebound.
On September 3, the seven-day moving average of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows stood at $290 million per day.

Points to NO

Recent swings are large relative to the remaining cushion, leaving the threshold vulnerable to an ordinary reversal.
On September 3, Bitcoin traded near $77,800 after falling as low as roughly $76,300 that day.

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