US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+7%$100 paper stake

Polymarket52¢ → 49¢

Our position · NO48¢ → 51¢

Signal endedJul 24

Forecast updatedAug 8

Jul 17 forecast

A US-Iran ceasefire by August 31 is unlikely because Operation Epic Fury hostilities continue, with US strikes documented through July 16.

With US strikes documented through July 16 and active Operation Epic Fury hostilities, a full 14-day cessation by Aug 31 is unlikely in the remaining 45 days. Whether a durable, verified ceasefire takes effect by roughly Aug 17 and holds without direct-impact strikes through month-end. CENTCOM and media confirm repeated strikes on Iran through July 14-16 with no operational pause (E1-E5). US VP states negotiations continue but violence is being responded to; conflict named Operation Epic Fury with intermittent hostilities (E8).

Points to NO

CENTCOM and media confirm repeated strikes on Iran through July 14-16 with no operational pause (E1-E5).
Evidence
US VP states negotiations continue but violence is being responded to; conflict named Operation Epic Fury with intermittent hostilities (E8).
Evidence

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