Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?
Signal ended
Entry · YES56¢
PublishedSep 2
Sep 2 forecast
October WTI settled at $91.01 one day before resolution, so a September 3 settlement above $90.49 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
October WTI enters the final session above the threshold after two strong settlements and a much larger-than-expected inventory draw. Recovering Persian Gulf exports and record U.S. production limit further upside, while the current $90.6066 price leaves little protection against a sharp reversal. Even with that substantial intraday risk, a settlement above $90.49 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- October WTI’s latest settlement stands above the required threshold, providing a modest starting cushion.On September 2, the October 2026 WTI contract settled at $91.01 per barrel, up $0.79 for the day.
- A surprisingly large U.S. inventory draw supports near-term crude prices.Reported on September 2, U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.45 million barrels in the week ending August 28, versus an expected 1.1 million-barrel draw.
- Recent conflict-driven momentum has pushed WTI rapidly through the settlement threshold.On September 1, WTI settled at $90.22 per barrel after rising $4.46 following renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran.
Points to NO
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce the scarcity premium supporting oil prices.On September 2, Brown Brothers Harriman strategists said Persian Gulf oil exports were recovering toward two-thirds of pre-war levels and that further oil-price upside appeared limited.
- Record U.S. production provides a strong supply offset to geopolitical disruptions.Reported on September 2, U.S. crude production matched a record 13.862 million barrels per day in the week ending August 28.
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