GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+72%$100 paper stake
Polymarket47¢ → 9¢
Our position · NO53¢ → 91¢
Signal endedJul 7
Forecast updatedJul 7
Jun 30 forecast
GPT-5.6 will very likely not ship by July 8 because the U.S. government cybersecurity review will hold the release until mid-July.
Government review pushes release to mid-July; OpenAI explicitly denied waitlist plans.
Points to NO
- Anthropic Fable 5 offline 18 days post-suspensionAnthropic Fable 5 remained offline 18 days, June 30 2026
- Altman projected mid-July GPT-5.6 releaseSam Altman projected broader GPT-5.6 release mid-July 2026
- OpenAI explicitly denied public waitlist plansOpenAI confirmed absence of public waitlist, June 30 2026
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