Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+150%$100 paper stake

Polymarket40¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES40¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 5

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Average daily Strait of Hormuz transits will almost certainly stay below 20 on July 31, because Iran's Revolutionary Guard has formally closed the strait to commercial traffic.

Major kinetic escalation on July 11-12 structurally suppresses shipping traffic beyond the 19-day resolution window.

Points to YES

US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets, July 11.
US Central Command forces hit 140 Iranian military targets, July 11
Iran formally announced Strait of Hormuz closure, July 11.
IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
Strait daily transits dropped to 12 vessels, July 11.
Strait of Hormuz daily transits dropped to 12 ships, July 11

Points to NO

Oman mediated shipping security talks between US and Iran, July 11.
Iran and Oman held talks Saturday on managing maritime traffic arrangements

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