Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+122%$100 paper stake
Polymarket40¢ → 89¢
Our position · YES40¢ → 89¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedJul 13
Jul 12 forecast
Average daily Strait of Hormuz transits will almost certainly stay below 20 on July 31, because Iran's Revolutionary Guard has formally closed the strait to commercial traffic.
Major kinetic escalation on July 11-12 structurally suppresses shipping traffic beyond the 19-day resolution window.
Points to YES
- US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets, July 11.US Central Command forces hit 140 Iranian military targets, July 11
- Iran formally announced Strait of Hormuz closure, July 11.IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
- Strait daily transits dropped to 12 vessels, July 11.Strait of Hormuz daily transits dropped to 12 ships, July 11
Points to NO
- Oman mediated shipping security talks between US and Iran, July 11.Iran and Oman held talks Saturday on managing maritime traffic arrangements
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