Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 20 forecast

Consistent polling leads for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva across major surveys mean Flávio Bolsonaro winning the most first-round votes is unlikely.

Major polling aggregators and recent surveys show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a steady advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro, typically ranging between two and five percentage points in valid vote intentions. Although Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap and holds an edge among evangelical voters and in select regions, over three-quarters of the electorate report having already made up their minds. Minor center-right candidates refuse to withdraw formally, diluting the opposition vote. Because the incumbent retains superior broadcast advertising airtime and announced expanded welfare payments, Bolsonaro faces an uphill climb to overtake Lula in the first round.

Points to NO

Lula consistently leads Flávio Bolsonaro across almost all recent major national surveys.
In a September 15–16 Datafolha survey, Lula led Flávio Bolsonaro 43% to 39% in valid votes, consistent with an EXAME aggregator lead of 38.9% to 33.5%.
Voter intention remains highly crystallized with few undecided electors remaining.
Datafolha reported that 76% of voters are completely decided, including 84% of Lula supporters and 82% of Bolsonaro supporters.
Third-party center-right candidates refuse to drop out, splitting the conservative vote.
Campaign aides for regional governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema confirmed zero chance of withdrawing their candidacies before the first round.

Points to YES

Flávio Bolsonaro has consistently narrowed the polling deficit through late summer and early autumn.
The gap between Lula and Bolsonaro in the EXAME aggregator narrowed from 6.67 percentage points in August to 5.41 points by mid-September.

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