Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 16 forecast

Recent polls consistently show Die Linke ahead of the CDU in Berlin, making a CDU victory unlikely.

The balance of recent polls shows Die Linke leading the CDU, and the CDU has not been ahead in any major poll since the start of September. A large share of voters remain undecided, and while that creates some uncertainty, late deciders typically break toward the perceived opposition, which may favor Die Linke given dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition. Without a clear late shift in the CDU's direction, a victory is unlikely.

Points to NO

Die Linke consistently leads in recent polls.
The ZDF-Politbarometer Extra from 7-10 September gave Die Linke 23% and the CDU 21%.
High share of undecided voters creates risk for CDU as incumbent partner.
In the ZDF Politbarometer Extra, 28% of respondents said they did not yet know for certain whom they would vote for.
CDU leadership change mid-campaign disrupted momentum.
Kai Wegner stepped down as CDU lead candidate on 10 July 2026, replaced by Stefan Evers.

Points to YES

CDU remains within the margin of error of the lead in some polls.
The INSA poll from 7-14 September showed the CDU and Die Linke tied at 20% each.

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