Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+15%$100 paper stake
Polymarket22¢ → 11¢
Our position · NO78¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 7 forecast
Hormuz traffic will almost certainly not return to normal by August 31 because the 40-to-50-day mine clearance operation cannot finish before the deadline.
Hard physical constraints (40-day clearance) and fresh kinetic strikes (July 6) break the 55-day timeline required for a 7-day moving average recovery.
Points to NO
- Clearance timeline exceeds windowSafe mine clearance requires 40 to 50 days
- Kinetic escalation halts diplomacyMissile struck Qatari LNG vessel Al Rekayyat, July 6
- Dark fleet evasion suppresses data94 percent of transits utilize dark or non-IMO routes
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.