Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Polymarket22¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Jul 7 forecast

Hormuz traffic will almost certainly not return to normal by August 31 because the 40-to-50-day mine clearance operation cannot finish before the deadline.

Hard physical constraints (40-day clearance) and fresh kinetic strikes (July 6) break the 55-day timeline required for a 7-day moving average recovery.

Points to NO

Clearance timeline exceeds window
Safe mine clearance requires 40 to 50 days
Kinetic escalation halts diplomacy
Missile struck Qatari LNG vessel Al Rekayyat, July 6
Dark fleet evasion suppresses data
94 percent of transits utilize dark or non-IMO routes

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