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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+82%$100 paper stake
Polymarket55¢ 100¢
Our position · YES55¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 30 forecast

Anthropic is already using Model 2 heavily internally and has previously released a safeguarded Mythos configuration, so a qualifying public release is favored but far from guaranteed.

The visible evidence leans against an imminent launch: Anthropic has not announced a qualifying successor, its newest Mythos access remains restricted, and Opus 5 was recently its strongest generally available model. A qualifying release is nevertheless favored because Model 2 is already seeing heavy internal use and Anthropic has demonstrated that it can turn a restricted underlying model into a safeguarded configuration for general access. That creates a credible short-notice launch path, although the rapidly closing window leaves substantial risk that public access arrives too late.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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