Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 26, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+64%$100 paper stake

Kalshi61¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES61¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

October WTI remained above the cutoff despite a sharp selloff, so an August 26 settlement above $80.49 is likely.

The October contract was still quoted at $82.62 on August 25, leaving room above the cutoff after a steep daily decline. Recent trading has generally remained higher, while constrained Middle East supply supports crude. However, improving Hormuz flows, ample inventories and softer demand expectations create meaningful risk that selling continues through the settlement window.

Points to YES

October WTI’s remaining cushion means prices can weaken further without producing a settlement below the cutoff.
On August 25 at 12:00:42 p.m., the October 2026 NYMEX WTI contract was quoted at $82.62 per barrel.
Persistent supply constraints and depleted global stocks should limit further near-term declines by preserving a geopolitical premium.
As of August 25, the IEA projected a third-quarter oil deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day and reported that global stocks had fallen 410 million barrels since late February.

Points to NO

The sharp August 25 selloff raises the chance that downward momentum carries the contract through its modest remaining cushion.
The October contract was down 2.78% from its previous close of $85.01 when quoted at $82.62 on August 25.
Improving oil flows through Hormuz reduce the disruption premium and could extend the retreat before settlement.
About 40 tankers reportedly exited the Strait of Hormuz on August 21 carrying roughly 16 million barrels of crude.
Higher inventories, softer demand and continued Iranian exports reinforce selling pressure if traders refocus on crude-market fundamentals.
The August 24 decline followed a 4.4-million-barrel U.S. commercial-crude inventory increase, downward demand revisions, soft gasoline demand and continued Iranian exports to China.

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