Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Aug 22 forecast

Braide’s strong runoff position and low rejection outweigh recent first-round reversals, so his election as Maranhão governor is likely.

Recent first-round polling is sharply divided, with two newer surveys putting Orleans ahead after Braide led most earlier polls. Braide nevertheless remains likely to win because available runoff tests favor him clearly, his rejection is substantially lower, and one recent survey placed him above a majority of valid votes. Orleans’s momentum makes the contest uncertain, but a narrow first-round advantage would not by itself overcome Braide’s stronger position in a two-candidate race.

Points to YES

Braide has demonstrated both majority-level first-round support and a commanding runoff advantage, giving him more than one plausible path to victory.
The Aug. 6–10 IPPI survey placed Braide at 53.5% of valid first-round votes and ahead of Orleans by 61% to 39% in a simulated runoff.
Braide’s much lower rejection should help him collect support from eliminated candidates if the election reaches a runoff.
The Aug. 6–10 IPPI survey measured rejection at 6.7% for Braide and 19.9% for Orleans.
Braide’s runoff strength predates the latest polling dispute, indicating that voters outside his first-round camp may still prefer him when the field narrows.
The July 6–7 Real Time Big Data survey showed Braide defeating Orleans by 52% to 38% in a simulated runoff.

Points to NO

Orleans has taken a lead in the newest available survey, creating a credible path to entering a runoff with momentum and broader first-round support.
The Aug. 15–20 IPSensus survey placed Orleans at 41.01% and Braide at 37.84%, a 3.17-point difference.
A second August poll showed a larger Orleans advantage, suggesting the reversal may be more than isolated survey noise.
The Aug. 8–11 Veritás survey placed Orleans at 47.5% and Braide at 39.1% in its stimulated first-round scenario.

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