Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?
Signal ended
Entry · YES72¢
PublishedSep 4
Sep 4 forecast
October WTI remains above the $89.99 threshold with only hours left, so a settlement above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
The latest settlement-basis price of about $90.80 leaves a narrow cushion above $89.99. Same-day reports have ranged from below $90 to above $91, making a sharp reversal the main risk. A recent $91.30 settlement, severely restricted Hormuz traffic, and continued regional hostilities still support a settlement above the threshold.
Points to YES
- The October contract was comfortably above the threshold during same-day trading.At 10:03 a.m. on September 4, the October WTI contract traded at $91.85 per barrel.
- Extremely restricted Hormuz traffic is supporting a supply-risk premium in crude oil.Only nine vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 2, compared with about 135 per day before the war.
- Recent settlements show upward momentum above the threshold.On September 3, the October WTI contract settled at $91.30 after WTI rose for four consecutive sessions.
Points to NO
- Same-day trading has already fallen below the settlement threshold, showing the cushion is fragile.WTI traded below $90 during the Asian session on September 4.
- Rising Iraqi exports provide some replacement supply for disrupted Gulf flows.Iraq’s crude exports rose to about 2.34 million barrels per day in August from about 1.35 million in July.
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