Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket39¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO61¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 26

Forecast updated

Oct 19 forecast

YES: Q 27.8% · Market odds 26.5% at forecast

First-round count. Lula edged Flávio Bolsonaro in Amapá's first round by 225 votes.

Main caution: Three Amapá runoff polls before the first round showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula.

Evidence and updates

Runoff polling. One Amapá runoff poll put Lula seven points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro.

Local machine. Amapá senator Davi Alcolumbre is staying with Lula through the second round.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −5.6 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-19T13:29:13.317597+00:00 · 2026-10-19T13:24:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Will any Amapá-specific runoff poll be published before October 25, and does it confirm or contradict Lula's 225-vote first-round edge in the state?

First-round count

With all 1,914 Amapá sections counted in the 2026 first round, Lula received 212,503 valid votes, or 45.71%, versus Flávio Bolsonaro’s 212,278, or 45.67%, a Lula margin of 225 votes.

Runoff polling

An AtlasIntel Amapá poll conducted September 27–October 2 showed Lula at 50.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43.5% in a runoff scenario; the sample was 800 and the margin of error was three percentage points.

Local machine

Davi Alcolumbre told allies that he intended to remain alongside Lula through the second round despite maintaining dialogue with Flávio Bolsonaro.
On October 16, Lula and Amapá senator Davi Alcolumbre appeared together at the promulgation of the amendment ending the six-day work schedule, and the session displayed their political alignment before the runoff.

Main caution

An Instituto Veritá Amapá poll conducted from September 26 through October 1 showed Flávio Bolsonaro with 55.1% of valid responses and Lula with 44.9% in a runoff simulation.
A Quaest Amapá poll conducted September 20–23 showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 47% in a runoff simulation, with 1% undecided and 4% saying blank, null or not voting.
A Real Time Big Data Amapá poll conducted September 3–7 showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.0% and Lula at 41.0%, with a declared margin of error of 2.0 percentage points.

Points to NO

Amapá runoff polling conducted before the first round mostly showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, including a double-digit lead in one survey.
An Instituto Veritá Amapá poll from September 26 to October 1 put Flávio Bolsonaro at 55.1% and Lula at 44.9% in a runoff simulation.
Amapá's most recent presidential runoff flipped against Lula after he led the first round, showing the state's second-round electorate is not an extension of its first-round result.
In Amapá's 2022 presidential runoff, Jair Bolsonaro received 51.36% and Lula 48.64%, after Lula had led the first round there 45.67% to 43.41%.
Lula's main local partners in Amapá lost their own races on October 4, weakening the down-ballot coattail he would normally rely on in a runoff.
Lula-backed governor Clécio Luís lost Amapá's gubernatorial election in the first round, and Randolfe Rodrigues lost his Senate reelection bid the same day.

Points to YES

Lula actually won Amapá's first round, narrowly but statewide, and led in three quarters of its municipalities, so he starts the runoff with a real base in the state.
With all 1,914 Amapá sections counted, Lula received 212,503 valid votes (45.71%) versus Flávio Bolsonaro's 212,278 (45.67%), while leading in 12 of 16 municipalities.
At least one Amapá survey found Lula comfortably ahead in a runoff simulation, showing the runoff polling record in the state is mixed rather than uniformly against him.
An AtlasIntel Amapá poll conducted September 27 to October 2 showed Lula at 50.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43.5% in a runoff, with 800 respondents.

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