Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+38%$100 paper stake
Polymarket31¢ → 5¢
Our position · NO69¢ → 95¢
Signal endedJul 8
Forecast updatedJul 5
Jul 1 forecast
Strait of Hormuz traffic will very likely miss the 60-ship benchmark by July 31 because narrow cleared channels physically limit transits.
Uncleared mines and recent kinetic strikes force commercial shipping into narrow convoys, making it mathematically nearly impossible to sustain the 420-ship weekly volume required for a 7-day moving average of 60.
Points to NO
- Kpler reported transits dropped to 12Kpler reported Strait of Hormuz transits dropped to 12, June 28
- Mine clearance requires 40-50 daysMaritime experts estimated mine clearance requires 40-50 days
- US and Iran exchanged strikes June 28US and Iran military forces exchanged strikes, June 28
Points to YES
- Kpler single-day transits hit 74Kpler recorded 74 Strait of Hormuz transits, June 24
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