US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold−1%$100 paper stake

Polymarket28¢ → 28¢

Our position · NO72¢ → 72¢

Signal endedJul 24

Forecast updatedAug 11

Jul 17 forecast

The US will very likely keep the Iranian blockade in force past August 15, since the White House and US Central Command confirmed active enforcement through July 17.

The US reinstated and actively enforces the Iranian blockade through July 17 with explicit White House and CENTCOM confirmations, and no official termination signal exists; over… Whether Trump issues an unambiguous Truth Social or official statement ending the blockade generally rather than continuing strikes and… Active blockade enforcement confirmed July 16 with disabled vessel and redirected traffic No official or credible leak suggests a planned announcement; speculative posts are unverified

Points to NO

Active blockade enforcement confirmed July 16 with disabled vessel and redirected traffic
Evidence
No official or credible leak suggests a planned announcement; speculative posts are unverified
Evidence

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