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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+85%$100 paper stake
Polymarket54¢ 100¢
Our position · YES54¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 30 forecast

Despite visible evidence leaning against release, Anthropic has a stronger Mythos-class successor internally, so public release by September 2 is favored but far from guaranteed.

The visible record leans against release: Model 2 remained internal, lacked an external-release plan, and had not completed standard testing, while late-August release notes showed no launch. Still, Anthropic has a more capable Mythos-class system in hand, recently released several other models in quick succession, and could qualify through an official page with immediate public access. A release by the deadline is therefore favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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