Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+10%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 8¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 92¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast
Daily Hormuz transits will almost certainly stay below 40 through July 31 because ships running dark to evade attack never register on the PortWatch count.
Recent traffic collapsed to single digits; a 20 percent US toll structurally prevents mass escorted convoys; AIS-dark evasion hides remaining traffic from Portwatch.
Points to NO
- MarineTraffic tracked two tankers crossing Hormuz, July 14MarineTraffic tracked two tankers crossing Hormuz, July 14
- US demanded 20 percent cargo toll for Strait protection, July 13US demanded 20 percent cargo toll for Strait protection, July 13
- Large vessels transited Southern Highway without active AIS, July 7-14Large vessels transited Southern Highway without active AIS, July 7-14
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