Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi58¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO42¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin is virtually level with the threshold but faces repeated overhead rejection, so a $78,000-or-higher reading is less likely than not.

The settlement-basis price is around $77,990, only about $10 below the $78,000 threshold with less than 15 hours remaining. Recent ETF inflows and a strong broader trend keep an upside move clearly live. However, repeated rejections near $80,000, stretched momentum and weak American spot demand point toward renewed selling. A reading at or above $78,000 remains a real possibility, but a lower reading is more likely.

Points to NO

Repeated rejection above $80,000 shows sellers remain active near the threshold.
On August 30, Bitcoin had been sold back below $80,000 both times it moved above that level in late August.
Stretched momentum increases the risk of another short-term pullback.
On August 30, Bitcoin's daily RSI was about 71 and its weekly RSI about 81, both described as stretched.
Bitcoin is currently just below the required threshold, although the gap is negligible.
On August 31, the settlement-basis price was around $77,990, roughly $10 below $78,000 with less than 15 hours remaining.

Points to YES

Strong institutional inflows have provided substantial buying support during the rally.
By August 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted more than $2.5 billion across seven consecutive sessions as Bitcoin rose from roughly $62,000 to $80,000.
Bitcoin's broader technical trend remains upward despite the latest pullback.
On August 30, Bitcoin remained above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

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