Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold−54%$100 paper stake
Polymarket23¢ → 11¢
Our position · YES23¢ → 11¢
Signal endedJul 22
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 15 forecast
Iran has very likely already withdrawn from MOU negotiations because its July 15 executive declarations rejected the deal and any future talks outright.
July 15 executive statements satisfy substantive termination criteria.
Points to YES
- Iran FM complete withdrawal announcement, July 15Iranian Foreign Ministry announced complete withdrawal from US memorandum, July 15
- Gharibabadi rejected future Washington negotiations, July 15Deputy FM Gharibabadi ruled out future negotiations with Washington, July 15
- Criteria allow substantive policy equivalenceSubstantive policy of termination must be unambiguously communicated, even if specific terminology is not used
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.