Will the natural gas close price be above 2.910 USD/MMBtu on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Natural gas remains above the threshold with little time left, so a close above $2.910 is favored.

The settlement-basis price is $2.9353, leaving a thin cushion over $2.910 with less than an hour remaining. The price has retreated substantially from an earlier move above $3.00, making another abrupt swing credible. Record production and above-average inventories add downside pressure, while disrupted global LNG flows provide support. The current cushion and short remaining window make an above-threshold close favored.

Points to YES

Natural gas is currently above the settlement threshold with little time remaining.
On September 8, the settlement-basis price stood at $2.9353 against the $2.910 threshold.
Disrupted global LNG flows support international gas prices and demand for alternative supplies.
On September 8, the Strait of Hormuz closure was reported to have largely choked off global LNG flows and tightened markets worldwide.

Points to NO

The intraday retreat shows sellers can quickly erase an apparently comfortable cushion.
On September 8, an earlier report put natural gas around $3.04, while the current settlement-basis price is $2.9353.
Above-average inventories leave the market well supplied and limit upward price pressure.
For the week ending August 28, natural gas inventories were 5.2% above their five-year average.
Record dry-gas production strengthens the risk of another late decline.
U.S. dry-gas production set a daily record on August 31, exceeding the previous high by 0.2%.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.