Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 22

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Switzerland is unlikely to host the next US-Iran meeting, because the ceasefire's June collapse pushes any diplomacy toward crisis mediation in Oman or Qatar.

Kinetic strikes and the collapse of the ceasefire have centered diplomacy on crisis mediation in Oman, effectively nullifying the likelihood of near-term formal talks in Switzerland.

Points to NO

Diplomatic focus relocated to Oman
Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Oman, July 11
US initiated kinetic strikes against Iran
US military executed third strike wave against Iran, July 11
Iran established strict negotiation preconditions
Fars reported Iranian refusal to negotiate before US retreat, July 11

Points to YES

Pre-escalation momentum favored Switzerland
Axios projected US-Iran Switzerland talks, July 10

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