Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Polymarket21¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Aug 27 forecast

Current polling and seat projections leave New People behind its closest rivals, so winning the largest seat gain is unlikely.

The contest is about seats gained, not the largest final caucus, so New People benefits from starting with a small delegation. Its recent momentum and access to former Yabloko voters keep it competitive. However, it remains fourth in the polling trend, trails LDPR in the latest seat projection, and has weaker funding and regional organization. The likeliest outcome is therefore a meaningful New People expansion that falls just short of the largest gain.

Points to NO

New People’s fourth-place standing favors LDPR as its main obstacle, because stronger support and a larger projected caucus give LDPR a clearer route to the biggest increase.
On August 27, the weighted polling trend placed New People fourth, and its seat projection gave New People 55 seats compared with 66 for LDPR and 69 for the Communist Party.
Weak regional organization limits New People’s ability to convert national support into single-member-district victories, narrowing a key route to outgaining its rivals.
On May 7, Riddle reported that New People had fielded few candidates in 2025 regional contests and won only one of 471 local deputy mandates it contested.
A severe campaign-funding disadvantage constrains New People’s late outreach and district operations while better-funded rivals can sustain broader mobilization.
As of August 5, New People had received 4 million rubles for its election fund, compared with 244.8 million for LDPR and 50 million for the Communist Party.

Points to YES

New People’s small starting delegation lets a moderate electoral advance translate into a large seat gain, making it more competitive on the market’s metric than its final ranking suggests.
On May 14, Euronews reported that New People had entered the State Duma in 2021 with 13 seats after winning 5.32% of the vote.
Yabloko’s exclusion gives New People access to moderate voters who lack a closer alternative, supporting additional list seats during the closing campaign.
In polling conducted August 14–16 after Yabloko’s removal, New People rose from 5% to 8%, while the three larger parliamentary parties all declined.

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