Atlanta Falcons won45vs.New Orleans Saints24

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Oct 3 forecast

Penix's explosive return and Atlanta's rushing matchup offset New Orleans' superior early passing production.

Atlanta looked transformed when Michael Penix Jr. returned, pairing an explosive passing performance with a dominant rushing attack. That ground game matches up well against a New Orleans defense that has struggled against the run and now has several front-seven injuries. New Orleans counters with the stronger early-season passing offense, an outstanding start from Tyler Shough and a favorable matchup against Atlanta's depleted secondary. The matchup is roughly balanced, with Atlanta holding a slight edge because its offense improved sharply with Penix and it enters with extra rest.

Points to Falcons

Michael Penix Jr.'s return immediately lifted an Atlanta offense that had struggled badly without him.
On September 24, Atlanta gained 498 yards and scored 35 points against Green Bay in Penix's first game back from a torn ACL.
Atlanta's powerful rushing attack targets one of New Orleans' clearest defensive weaknesses.
Through September 27, Atlanta ranked second in rushing offense at 173 yards per game, while New Orleans ranked 27th against the run.
New Orleans has recently undermined strong offensive production with costly turnovers.
On September 27, the Saints committed four turnovers and surrendered an 11-point second-half lead in a 35-27 loss to Las Vegas.

Points to Saints

New Orleans' productive passing game has a favorable matchup against Atlanta's weakened pass defense.
Through September 27, Tyler Shough had surpassed 250 passing yards with multiple touchdowns in every game, while Atlanta had allowed 583 passing yards over its previous two games.
A.J. Terrell Jr.'s absence removes Atlanta's top starting cornerback against a highly productive receiving group.
Atlanta placed Terrell on injured reserve with a groin injury on September 22 and started C.J. Henderson in his place the following week.

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