Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 16

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

A reported FOMC majority wants tighter policy, so a quarter-point September rate hike is favored.

The strongest case for a September hike is Jay Hatfield’s report that a majority of the FOMC wants higher rates, reinforced by July minutes showing broad support for further tightening. Persistent PCE inflation and several officials’ public calls for action add momentum. However, falling payrolls, easing CPI readings, and forecasts of no September consensus leave a hold as a substantial alternative. A quarter-point hike is favored.

Points to YES

A reported FOMC majority supports raising interest rates.
On August 31, Jay Hatfield said a majority of the FOMC wanted to raise rates.
The July meeting revealed substantial internal momentum toward further tightening.
Minutes published August 20 said several participants favored a quarter-point July increase and many expected further tightening would be needed.
Persistent PCE inflation strengthens the case for immediate action.
Data published August 26 showed July headline PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE inflation at 3.3% from a year earlier.

Points to NO

Weak payroll data raise the cost of tightening policy now.
Data published August 14 showed payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while May and June gains were revised sharply lower.
Some economists expect cooler inflation and insufficient committee support to delay a hike.
On August 31, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst predicted no September consensus and assessed that rate increases were unlikely during 2026.

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