Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?
Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket26¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 31
Aug 30 forecast
Two late riding polls put Liberal Daniel Gobeil ahead, so a Caroline Dubé victory is unlikely but still live.
The two latest riding polls both place Gobeil ahead of Dubé, and economic anxiety tied to the United States appears to have shifted voters toward the Liberals. The race remains live because the newest reported gap is within sampling error, many voters were uncommitted, and Dubé has identifiable pockets of strength. With voting imminent, turnout rather than further campaigning is the main remaining source of an upset.
Points to NO
- Gobeil leads Dubé in both late riding polls.Published August 29, a Poliwave poll conducted August 16–19 placed the Liberals at 39.9% and the Bloc Québécois at 35.1%.
- Economic tension with the United States has strengthened the Liberal campaign.On August 25, Raynald Harvey said voters shifted rapidly toward the Liberals after Canada–U.S. negotiations failed.
- The Liberals concentrated unusual organizational resources on Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.Reported August 26, the Liberals could combine spending limits from three simultaneous by-elections and direct resources toward this riding, while the Bloc had only its single-riding limit.
Points to YES
- The latest reported gap is too small to make the race secure.On August 26, Segma Recherche reported that Gobeil’s 2.5-point lead over Dubé was inside the poll’s 4.6-point margin of error.
- Dubé has concentrated support in electorally important local groups.Published August 25, Segma Recherche found Dubé stronger in Chicoutimi and among women.
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