Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Aug 25?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 25

Bitcoin has traded comfortably above the cutoff today, so an August 25 price at or above $78,250 is highly likely.

Several independent intraday readings place Bitcoin above the cutoff, and the day’s reported trading range has remained above it. Strong recent spot-fund inflows and upward momentum support that cushion. Overbought conditions, profit-taking and demand for downside protection leave room for a sharp reversal, but such a move would need to erase the existing buffer within the remaining window.

Points to YES

A live benchmark reading above $80,000 provides a meaningful cushion over the cutoff, making a qualifying August 25 reading easier to sustain through ordinary volatility.
At 08:23 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price real-time index was $80,034.51.
The reported session low remained above the threshold, showing that even the day’s pullbacks had not yet reached the disqualifying level.
At 08:12 UTC on August 25, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $79,919.66 after trading between $78,708.32 and $81,265.30 during the session.
Strong spot-fund demand offers a more durable source of buying than short covering alone, improving the chances that Bitcoin holds above the cutoff.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew about $1.9 billion during the week ending August 21, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

Points to NO

Extremely stretched momentum raises the risk of rapid profit-taking that could consume Bitcoin’s cushion before the relevant reading.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s momentum indicator was near 78 after the price rose more than 25% over the preceding week, placing it above the level commonly viewed as overbought.
Continued demand for downside protection signals that traders still see meaningful reversal risk despite the rally, leaving the threshold vulnerable to a sudden selloff.
At 05:51 UTC on August 25, seven-day Bitcoin options skew remained negative while Bitcoin traded around $80,000.

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