Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Sep 10?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi57¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES57¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 10

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin remains just above $77,750 after recovering from lower intraday levels, so a September 10 settlement at or above the threshold is favored.

Bitcoin currently sits near $77,966, leaving only a narrow cushion over the $77,750 threshold. Its September 9 rebound and broadly bullish moving averages support another hold above the line, making a qualifying settlement favored. Recent trades below the threshold, substantial ETF outflows, rising yields, and Bitcoin’s capacity for sudden moves leave meaningful downside risk before settlement.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is already on the qualifying side of the threshold, although its cushion is narrow.
On September 9, the settlement-basis price was approximately $77,966, about $216 above $77,750.
Bitcoin demonstrated strong intraday recovery capacity after falling below the threshold.
On September 9, Bitcoin rose from $77,603 to $79,742 during overnight and morning trading.
Short-term trend readings remain broadly supportive despite uneven momentum.
On September 9, Bitcoin’s daily moving-average gauge registered 14 bullish readings, one neutral reading and no bearish readings.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has repeatedly traded below the settlement threshold during the latest session.
Bitcoin fell to $77,603 during trading from September 8 into September 9.
Fresh ETF redemptions indicate weaker institutional demand near the deadline.
On September 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were reported to have recorded more than $236 million in net daily outflows, including $201 million from BlackRock’s IBIT.
Rising oil prices and Treasury yields create an adverse backdrop for risk assets.
On September 9, U.S. stocks closed lower as oil rose above $100 per barrel and Treasury yields increased.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.