Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 90.00 and 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO48¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Repeated moves below $90 and above $91 leave the narrow band exposed, so an October WTI settlement between $90.00 and $90.99 is a meaningful underdog.

The current settlement-basis price of $90.6296 is inside the band, but that advantage is fragile: September 4 reports placed WTI both below $90 and above $91.68, while September 3 trading ranged from $89.60 to $93.13. Because CME uses trading during a two-minute window rather than an all-day average, a small late move can put settlement outside the dollar-wide interval. Constrained Hormuz traffic and lower U.S. inventories make an upward miss the clearest risk, although recovering Iraqi exports preserve substantial downside risk. A settlement inside the band is therefore a meaningful underdog.

Points to NO

Recent September 4 trading was materially above the settlement band.
At 10:03 a.m. on September 4, the October WTI contract traded at $91.85 per barrel.
Large same-day swings make the narrow dollar-wide target difficult to hold.
On September 3, WTI traded between $89.60 and $93.13, spanning well beyond both boundaries of the target band.
The contract entered September 4 after four consecutive rising sessions and an above-range settlement.
October WTI settled at $91.30 on September 3, completing its fourth consecutive rising session.

Points to YES

October WTI has recently demonstrated that it can settle inside the target band.
The contract settled at $90.22 per barrel on September 1.

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