Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
Signal ended
Entry · YES69¢
PublishedAug 31
Aug 31 forecast
Renewed attacks around Hormuz have lifted October WTI above $84.49, so its September 1 settlement above that threshold is likely despite meaningful volatility.
At $85.53, October WTI has a modest cushion over the $84.49 threshold. That cushion is vulnerable because the contract traded on both sides of the threshold on August 31 and settled below it the previous session. Still, renewed military escalation, impaired Hormuz traffic, and depleted oil stocks make a settlement above $84.49 likely, with meaningful uncertainty from abrupt geopolitical moves.
Points to YES
- October WTI is already trading above the settlement threshold.At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October 2026 WTI contract was quoted at $86.50 per barrel.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran conflict is sustaining an immediate oil-supply risk premium.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against regional U.S. assets.
- Falling global oil stocks leave prices more sensitive to supply disruption.CME Group commentary dated August 25 said global oil stocks had declined by 410 million barrels since late February 2026.
Points to NO
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit further upward pressure on crude.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of prewar levels.
- The threshold remains within the contract's recent intraday range.On August 31, October WTI traded between $84.11 and $86.58 after opening at $84.69.
- The entire cushion was created by a sharp move after the previous settlement.The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.