Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket50¢ → 41¢

Our position · NO50¢ → 59¢

Signal endedJul 25

Forecast updatedAug 8

Jul 18 forecast

A full Iranian airspace closure by August 31 is unlikely, as Tehran's flight region stays open with no closure order despite sustained US strikes.

Iranian airspace is open on July 18 with credible multi-source confirmation. The conflict remains hot—US strikes continue (E4)—but Iran has shown a preference for targeted or partial measures rather than a full commercial FIR shutdown. A 44-day window leaves meaningful escalation tail risk, yet the absence of corroboration for the July 16 social claim and the consistent aviation-monitoring consensus of openness both weigh against qualification. The forecast therefore assigns about a one-in-four chance to a general closure, with the bulk of probability on continued openness or only localized restrictions.

Points to NO

Credible aviation monitors (OpsGroup, EASA) confirm no new Iran airspace closures as of July 17-18 despite widened conflict.
Evidence
Iran has maintained eastern Tehran FIR overflights through prior strikes and reopened quickly after earlier closures, indicating strategic preference for economic/open-airspace posture.
Evidence
The unverified X post claiming full cancellation lacks wire confirmation and conflicts with primary open-FIR reports.
Evidence

Points to YES

Sustained US strikes on Iranian targets including airports and infrastructure elevate defensive airspace-clearance risk.
Evidence
Kuwait and other neighbors have briefly closed airspace under Iranian attack pressure, showing regional closure is feasible.
Evidence

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