US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Polymarket68¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 15

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

A month-long lull followed July’s strikes, so another qualifying U.S. strike-free interval is likely.

The latest evidence leans against an immediate pause: U.S. forces recently struck Iran, and officials considered an extended campaign. Yet the prior month-long lull shows operations can stop long enough, while military sustainability concerns and Iran’s offer to resume commitments support another break. Because only one uninterrupted 14-day interval is needed, a qualifying ceasefire is likely, with meaningful uncertainty from renewed escalation.

Points to YES

A recent month-long gap between confirmed U.S. strikes shows that the required pause can occur amid continuing tensions.
The August 30, 2026, attack on Iranian rocket launchers was the first known U.S. strike inside Iran since late July.
U.S. military leaders’ concerns about sustaining large-scale operations favor a pause in attacks.
On September 1, 2026, senior U.S. military leaders were reported to have warned that continuing large-scale operations against Iran was becoming unsustainable.
Iran has offered to restore reciprocal commitments, providing a live path toward restraint.
On September 1, 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to resume the June memorandum’s commitments immediately if the United States did the same.

Points to NO

The latest U.S. air and missile strikes hit Iranian territory and restarted the required pause.
On September 1, 2026, U.S. missile and air strikes hit targets in southern Iran, including locations in Sirik county and Khuzestan province.
The administration has considered an extended campaign against Iranian military capabilities.
On September 1, 2026, U.S. officials said the administration was considering extended strikes against Iranian radar, air-defense, and anti-ship capabilities.

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