Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket83¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES83¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Aug 21 forecast

Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding lead over every rival except Lula has persisted across national surveys, so his second-place first-round finish is highly likely.

The campaign has settled into a clear two-candidate hierarchy. Recent national and state polling repeatedly places Lula first and Flávio second, while no other candidate has approached Flávio’s support. His high rejection and limited coalition support create downside risk, but neither has yet produced a competitive challenger for second place.

Points to YES

Flávio holds a commanding lead over the candidates competing for third, making a fall below second difficult without a major realignment.
The August 18–20 Datafolha poll placed Flávio at 33%, while the nearest lower-ranked candidate had 5%.
The Lula-first, Flávio-second ordering appears across polling organizations rather than depending on one survey.
On August 20, a review of recent Quaest, Meio/Ideia, Atlas/Bloomberg and Datafolha polls found all consistently placing Lula first and Flávio second, with the remaining candidates far behind.
Flávio’s support has remained stable as the formal campaign begins, reducing the time available for a rival to overtake him.
The August 18–20 Datafolha poll put Flávio at 33%, compared with 32% in its July 24 poll, while Lula moved from 40% to 39%.

Points to NO

High rejection creates exposure to campaign setbacks and gives rivals an opening to consolidate voters opposed to both leading candidates.
The August 18–20 Datafolha poll measured Flávio’s rejection at 46%, compared with 22% for Pablo Marçal.
Limited centrist backing and an unsuccessful search for a prominent running mate may constrain Flávio’s campaign reach during the closing stretch.
On August 5, centrist parties had largely declined to endorse Flávio or remained neutral, after which he selected PL lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate.

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