Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Polymarket21¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Justice Alito will almost certainly not announce retirement by September 30 because his October book release and new clerk hires signal firm plans to serve the coming term.

Explicit PIO denial on June 30, completed clerk hiring, and an October book release indicate planned retention, restricting the YES pathway to an unforeseen health crisis.

No factor breakdown on this forecast.

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