Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 in August?
Realized · 7-day hold−86%$100 paper stake
Polymarket40¢ → 6¢
Our position · YES40¢ → 6¢
Signal endedAug 31
Forecast updatedAug 31
Aug 24 forecast
Severe shipping disruption has already pushed WTI close to the threshold, so an August touch of $90 is narrowly favored.
Only a momentary one-minute touch is required, and WTI recently traded within striking distance after a rapid weekly advance. Hormuz attacks, rerouting and exceptionally expensive fuel markets leave room for another abrupt surge. However, the latest retreat, recovering oil flows, inventory releases and high U.S. production make the outcome only narrowly favored rather than clear-cut.
Points to YES
- WTI's recent proximity to $90 leaves a move that volatile geopolitical trading can cover quickly, raising the chance of a qualifying intraday spike.On August 20, a market snapshot reported WTI at $88.30 per barrel.
- Persistent attacks and costly rerouting keep a large disruption premium available, increasing the chance that one adverse shipping headline produces a sharp oil rally.On August 20, record tanker rates were reported amid attacks and rerouting, with 29 Hormuz-transit attacks recorded and tankers involved in 45% of them.
- The market has demonstrated strong short-term upside momentum, making another fast advance before month-end more plausible.On August 21, October WTI settled at $87.06 after gaining 6.86% during the week.
Points to NO
- The latest retreat has widened the remaining distance to $90, so a renewed catalyst is now needed rather than ordinary price movement.During Asian trading on August 24, WTI traded around $84.80 after two days of gains as investors took profits.
- Rerouting, continuing Hormuz flows, outside production and inventory releases have limited physical scarcity, reducing the chance that disruption alone forces WTI through $90.On August 20, reported offsets included 3.9 million barrels per day rerouted, about 5 million still passing Hormuz, 2 million from higher outside production and 6.1 million from inventory releases.
- High domestic production provides an additional supply cushion, limiting the durability and size of any geopolitical rally.On August 22, the U.S. energy secretary said domestic oil and gas production was at an all-time high.
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