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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+82%$100 paper stake
Polymarket55¢ 100¢
Our position · YES55¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1

Recent reports of partner testing and a September launch window indicate rollout is near, so Astra’s public release by September 15 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Recent reports describe partner testing, an imminent access expansion, and a public-release window before the deadline. The official record is more cautious: OpenAI has not announced a date, some Astra workloads remained paused in late August, and enhanced cybersecurity review could still delay deployment. Even so, a software rollout can move from limited testing to public access with little advance notice, making release the more likely outcome despite substantial delay risk.

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