Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 4?
Bitcoin sits just 0.08% below $78,500 with ample daily volatility, so a September 4 settlement above the threshold is a real possibility but not most likely.
Bitcoin is just 0.08% below the strike, while recent daily ranges have been far larger than that gap. A move above $78,500 is therefore readily achievable, but most contemporaneous price readings remain below the threshold, demand has softened, and potential breakeven selling extends across this area. The most likely outcome is a close finish below $78,500, with substantial two-sided risk around the employment report.
- Bitcoin remains slightly below the settlement threshold.On September 3, the settlement-basis price was $78,437.6129, just 0.08% below $78,500.
- Breakeven sellers may add supply around the threshold.On September 3, about 880,000 BTC had acquisition costs between roughly $77,500 and $80,300.
- Recent demand and momentum have weakened after Bitcoin failed to hold above $80,000.On September 2, Glassnode said short-term enthusiasm had moderated after Bitcoin failed to sustain its move above $80,000.
- Recent Bitcoin volatility is easily large enough to bridge the remaining gap.On September 2, Bitcoin's average daily range was $2,272, substantially larger than the contemporaneous distance to $78,500.
- Fresh ETF inflows offer some near-term demand support.US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $101.1 million net inflow on September 2.
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