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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ 100¢
Our position · YES76¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast

Late-stage account testing and a distinctive Bedrock response point to an imminent launch, so the next Mythos-class model release by September 4 is likely.

The official record currently leans against an immediate release: Anthropic has announced neither a qualifying model nor a release date, and public catalogs still list Fable 5. The strongest contrary evidence is recent account-level successor testing and a distinctive Bedrock response consistent with prerelease staging. Anthropic has also launched a model with same-day public access, so the lack of an advance announcement does not preclude a release during the remaining window. Taken together, a qualifying launch is likely, but uncertainty remains meaningful because the positive signals are unconfirmed and could reflect internal testing or configuration changes.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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