Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+42%$100 paper stake
Polymarket70¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 30
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 23 forecast
Late-run grosses are declining sharply as schools reopen, so an August 31 domestic total in the target band is likely.
The film has already cleared the band’s lower boundary and stood near $855 million through August 23. Its recent weekday grosses and weekend total have fallen substantially, while widespread school reopenings should further restrain weekdays. That pace should leave the August 31 total below the upper boundary, although estimated weekend figures, a still-wide release, and expectations of crossing $900 million soon create meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- The film has cleared the lower boundary while retaining about $45 million of room below the upper boundary, allowing a continued late-run slowdown to produce a YES result.On August 23, The Numbers displayed a cumulative domestic total of $854.901 million through the film’s twenty-fourth day.
- Weekday grosses are declining by roughly half from the prior week, making it harder for the remaining dates to add enough revenue to breach the upper boundary.The finalized August 20 gross was $5,468,937, down 51% from the previous Thursday, with the cumulative total at $815,901,026.
- The fourth-weekend decline indicates that the film is entering a slower phase, reducing the amount it should add before the cutoff.The August 21–23 weekend was reported at $39.0 million, down 45% from the third weekend’s $70.712 million.
Points to NO
- The latest cumulative figure still includes studio projections, so upward finalization could shrink the narrow cushion before the remaining dates are counted.On August 23, The Numbers described the $39.0 million weekend and $854.901 million cumulative total as official studio projections rather than finalized daily figures.
- Outside projections expect the film to cross $900 million soon, indicating that even a modestly stronger late-week run could push it beyond the target band before the deadline.A dated August 21 report asserted that the film was set to cross $900 million domestically during the following week.
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