Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Israel is highly unlikely to close its airspace before August because authorities are reopening terminals and working to prevent flight disruptions rather than restricting aviation.

The resolution requires a broad, state-initiated suspension, not airline or weather actions. Every current evidence atom points to openness and preservation: reopened terminals, solved logistics, eased EU risk, and explicit ministerial commitments. The active US-Iran conflict has not triggered closure, confirming a high threshold. The 12-day horizon further constrains the probability. The blended base rate, informed by strongly applicable prior Israel NO cases, sits near 5%, and current evidence updates it downward to about 2.5%. The dominant outcome is full continuity; qualifying closure pathways are limited to extreme, unobserved escalation.