Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Rayssa Furlan leads every recent overall measure of voting intent, so her winning the most valid votes in Amapá’s Senate election is highly likely.

Furlan holds a large lead in the newest survey and has ranked first across three recent polls using different question formats. Her strength also extends beyond first-choice responses, an important advantage when each voter may select two Senate candidates. The main risks are considerable voter uncertainty, her weaker showing among designated second choices in one poll, and unresolved candidacy reviews. Even with those caveats, the breadth and consistency of her polling lead make her winning the most valid votes highly likely.

Points to YES

Furlan holds a substantial lead over both principal rivals in the newest statewide poll.
In the Paraná Pesquisas survey fielded August 26–28, Furlan received 56.0%, versus 38.1% for Lucas Barreto and 36.6% for Randolfe Rodrigues.
Multiple recent surveys place Furlan first despite using different Senate-vote formats.
The Quaest poll fielded August 21–24 placed Furlan first in combined first- and second-vote mentions with 27%, ahead of Rodrigues at 19% and Barreto at 18%.
Furlan’s support appears broad enough to compete for both available Senate choices.
The Real Time Big Data survey fielded July 19–23 found Furlan leading both designated first-vote and designated second-vote intentions.

Points to NO

A large share of voters remains unsettled, leaving room for substantial late movement.
In the Quaest poll fielded August 21–24, 36% of respondents said they could still change their Senate vote before the election.
Furlan’s candidacy had not yet received a final judgment as the official campaign began.
As of August 26, all nine listed Amapá Senate candidacies, including Furlan’s, were awaiting judgment.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.