Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Kalshi36¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

BTC trades around $81,095 after strong inflows, so a sub-$72,500 trimmed mean by month-end is a meaningful underdog.

The visible evidence leans against a breach: BTC is around $81,095, recently rallied above major moving averages, and received strong spot-ETF inflows. Because the settlement measure removes extreme observations and incorporates the cumulative price record, an isolated plunge would have less effect than sustained trading near the low $70,000s. The outcome remains a meaningful underdog rather than a long shot because recent spot prices have fallen below $72,500 and fresh buying behind the latest rally may be limited.

Points to NO

BTC has a substantial price cushion above $72,500, while the trimmed calculation reduces the influence of isolated drops.
Gemini reported BTC at $81,140.07 at 9:58 AM on September 4, 2026.
Strong institutional inflows are supporting demand after the latest rally.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $730 million in net inflows on September 3, their strongest single-day total since January.

Points to YES

The latest rally may be fragile because short covering, rather than fresh long buying, supplied much of its momentum.
On September 3, CryptoQuant assessed that the recent rally was driven largely by short-position closures rather than new long positions.
The $72,500 threshold sits near a major long-term trend marker that could attract price if current support breaks.
On September 4, Bitcoin's 200-day exponential moving average was reported at $72,493.
Recent volatility shows BTC can trade below the threshold, although spot lows do not establish the cumulative trimmed mean.
Kraken reported BTC at $71,686 on August 20, with a 24-hour low of $64,314.30.

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